Photo : nato.int
Photo : nato.int
By Rosemary Kurian
WAR ON THE GROUND
On 03 April, according to Politico, the US entrepreneur Elon Musk warned Ukraine that “...the longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain,” predicting the potential fall of Dnipro and Odesa. Musk’s comments are similar to warnings made by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s President, urging for the passing of the US military aid to prevent Ukraine’s retreat. Ukraine’s high ranking military officials had warned of the grim picture within the Ukrainian military, which could worsen with elections set in the US and Europe. The future depends on where Russia decides to focus its next major offensive after weeks of surge in attacks, which could cause a collapse in the frontline.
On 03 April, according to Euronews, Ukraine lowered its age of conscription from 27 years to 25 to prepare its military forces ahead of a potential Russian offensive. Previous audit claimed that Ukraine needed 500,000 new recruits. This was proved wrong in a report by Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s forces. Russia’s Defence Ministry observed a surge in their conscription after the Moscow attack, with 16,000 new enlistments. Ukraine’s conscription laws are a sensitive matter, with previous ones controversial in the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament. The interest in joining the military forces have waned since the start of the war, but agreement to the war continues in Ukrainian public opinion.
On 03 April, according to The Kyiv Independent, Russia launched three S-300 anti-aircraft missiles and four Shahed drones overnight at Ukraine. The Ukrainian forces intercepted all the drones, which were fired from Russia’s Primorsko-Akhtarsk, according to Ukraine’s military forces. The drones were shot down over the Khmelnytskyi, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, and Cherkasy regions. Russia has increased its missile and drone attacks in recent weeks, especially targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 03 April, according to RT, the Russian Defence Ministry reported an influx of volunteers willing to sign up into the defence forces, with several willing to join the war against Ukraine. Interest to join the armed forces surged after the terrorist attack in Moscow and Russia’s claim that Ukraine is responsible. More than 100,000 people have registered to become contract soldiers since January 2024. Approximately 1,700 volunteers register at recruitment centres every day. In December 2023, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President, announced that since around 500,000 troops had contracts with the Defence Ministry to serve in the armed forces, he did not plan to announce a second round of mobilisation.
On 03 April, according to RT, Maria Zakharova, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, stated that the Washington Post’s claim that Russia had been alerted about the Crocus City terrorist attack in Moscow by the US is a “hoax.” The paper claimed that US officials alerted Russia with a “high degree of specificity” two weeks before the attack. Zakharova claimed that Russia was now “accustomed to American misinformation,” and urged the US to offer “factual material” on the same. White House had earlier stated that it had shared data to their Russian counterparts, when the latter claimed that “the information was too general.” Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, earlier accused the US of trying to clear Ukraine of any responsibility with the attack.
THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe
On 03 April, according to NATO, Foreign Ministers meeting in Brussels to mark the 75th anniversary of NATO agreed on planning for a greater role of NATO to aid Ukraine against Russia. In the meeting in preparation for the Washington Summit in July, Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary General of NATO, stated that Ukraine isn’t running of of courage but “out of ammunition”. He added that Ukraine can “rely on NATO support now and for a long haul.” The ministers further discussed the security threats in NATO’s southern neighbourhood, including terrorism, considering concrete proposals to combat them. The NATO-Ukraine Council is due to meet this week with various Foreign Ministers including Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister. The ministers of NATO will also meet with their Indo-Pacific partners and the European Union to discuss political cooperation especially in their implications in the Russia-Ukraine war.
On 03 April, according to Swissinfo, Alexander Stubb, Finland’s President, signed a 10-year security cooperation deal with Ukraine in Kyiv, becoming the eighth NATO member committing to a long-term security pact with Ukraine. Zelensky believes that Russia plans to mobilise 300,000 troops for a new offensive against Ukraine, a claim that Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, claimed as untrue. Stubb further promised Ukraine EUR 188 million with of additional military aid including aur defence systems and ammunition, not just for it to defend itself, but “for Ukraine to win this war.”
References
Jamie Dettmer, “Ukraine is at great risk of its front lines collapsing”, Politico, 03 April 2024
“Ukraine lowers conscription age as Russia gears up for possible offensive”, Euronews, 03 April 2024
Abbey Fenbert, “Air Force: Ukraine downs 4 out of 4 Shahed drones launched overnight”, The Kyiv Independent, 03 April 2024
“Russian army has recruited 100,000 so far this year – MOD”, RT, 03 April 2024
“Moscow responds to claims US warned it about possible terrorist target”, RT, 03 April 2024
Anna Voitenko, “Finland signs Ukraine security deal, Zelenskiy warns of Russia troop plans”, Swissinfo, 03 April 2024
“Foreign Ministers agree to move forward with planning for a greater NATO role in coordinating aid to Ukraine”, NATO, 03 April 2024